Mo. State 5 - 3 FCS. 2 wins over top 25 teams. No wins over top 5 teams. 2 wins over teams I think we would have whipped if they had not chickened out. Beat SIU on a last second FG at home. Lost to NDSU 25 - 0.
SIU 5 - 3 FCS. 4 wins over top 25 teams. 2 wins over top 5 teams. Dominated NDSU 38 - 14.
SDSU, UND, NDSU are locks. With 6 at large bids, will they take 3 at large from the MVFC? Would they take us over Mo. State?
SDSU 17 NDSU 10. Idiot from SDSU just nailed NDSU player with helmet and got kicked out of the game.
SDSU beats NDSU by 10!!!! Gets the auto bid. Only loss at UND 28 - 17.
NDSU does not win the MVFC. Hooray.
You could somewhat make an argument that SIU should be in over NDSU but you'd still need to make that argument that SIU should be in over Missouri State and you can't really make that. Missouri State won the MVFC Championship and beat them head to head. That loss will end up costing them a bid.
You could somewhat make an argument that SIU should be in over NDSU but you'd still need to make that argument that SIU should be in over Missouri State and you can't really make that. Missouri State won the MVFC Championship and beat them head to head. That loss will end up costing them a bid.
Not sure how much weight they give to that. It was a close game at their place.
People have been saying Richmond gets an at-large. Not sure why they are ranked 11. 3 -2 with two wins against 1 - 5 Elon and one win against 1 - 2 William and Mary, both with just one win.
Not including today, Massey has us at #12, behind UNI who we beat, and one spot ahead of Missouri St.
We have the #8 toughest schedule. Mo. State has #4 schedule - not sure why. Redchicken St and WIU should have pulled their schedule down. Maybe because they played and got destroyed by Oklahoma?
You could somewhat make an argument that SIU should be in over NDSU but you'd still need to make that argument that SIU should be in over Missouri State and you can't really make that. Missouri State won the MVFC Championship and beat them head to head. That loss will end up costing them a bid.
Not sure how much weight they give to that. It was a close game at their place.
People have been saying Richmond gets an at-large. Not sure why they are ranked 11. 3 -2 with two wins against 1 - 5 Elon and one win against 1 - 2 William and Mary, both with just one win.
Not including today, Massey has us at #12, behind UNI who we beat, and one spot ahead of Missouri St.
We have the #8 toughest schedule. Mo. State has #4 schedule - not sure why. Redchicken St and WIU should have pulled their schedule down. Maybe because they played and got destroyed by Oklahoma?
One thing's for sure: someone deserving is going to be staying home. Why do I have this rotten feeling that it's going to be us?
Anyway, what you wrote is a compelling argument for us getting in:
4 wins over top 25 teams. 2 wins over top 5 teams. Dominated NDSU 38 - 14.
Unfortunately, two of our losses were utter beat-downs, which I think is going to get a lot of attention from the committee. I haven't done any research on this, and I really haven't been following FCS as a whole this year at all, but I'm not sure horrible losses are part of anyone's else's "negative resume." (Even if they were losses to good teams, I would think the committee is going to think of them as cancelling out two of those good wins.)
But sheesh: you can't take away the two top 5 wins (but I'm sure they will find a way).
With the limited schedule played this year, it would have been a perfect opportunity to expand the field a bit.
(Inflammatory political snark)
You could somewhat make an argument that SIU should be in over NDSU but you'd still need to make that argument that SIU should be in over Missouri State and you can't really make that. Missouri State won the MVFC Championship and beat them head to head. That loss will end up costing them a bid.
Not sure how much weight they give to that. It was a close game at their place.
I think losing a head to head against a team you're competing with for a last spot matters more than anything. You can analyze how they did against other teams but they played each other and Missouri State won. SIU knew they had to win that game or they were likely done.
Who would you say are the other bubble teams (assuming we're one)?
(Sorry--again, I haven't really been following FCS this year.) I think you're right about MSU getting in over us, unfortunately, but I wonder if there's a chance we could bump someone else, given yet another win for us over a top 20-25 team today.
(Inflammatory political snark)
Haley's FCS Bracketology has SIU last team in nosing out Richmond,
Haley's FCS Bracketology has SIU last team in nosing out Richmond,
He has 5 MVFC teams getting in:
https://theanalyst.com/na/2021/04/fcs-football-bracketology-projecting-the-spring-playoff-field/
Haley's FCS Bracketology has SIU last team in nosing out Richmond,
He has 5 MVFC teams getting in:
https://theanalyst.com/na/2021/04/fcs-football-bracketology-projecting-the-spring-playoff-field/
Ugh. Eastern Washington--that loss still sticks in my craw 17+ years on.
(Inflammatory political snark)
Haley's FCS Bracketology has SIU last team in nosing out Richmond,
He has 5 MVFC teams getting in:
https://theanalyst.com/na/2021/04/fcs-football-bracketology-projecting-the-spring-playoff-field/
Ugh. Eastern Washington--that loss still sticks in my craw 17+ years on.
But I hope he's right that we're in!
(Inflammatory political snark)
I still think it is a stretch, but here is some of what Coach Hill is looking at. His thinking makes sense, but when does anything the NCAA does make sense.
Auto-bids: James Madison, Weber State, South Dakota State, Sam Houston, Jacksonville State, Monmouth, VMI, Davidson, Sacred Heart, Holy Cross.
Here are the remaining teams in the top 20 who were ranked above us last week with their strength of schedule, record and result this week:
#2 NDSU (17) 6-2 Lost
#6 N. Dakota (12) 4-1 DNP
#7 Delaware (61) 5-0 Won
#8 E. Washington (27) 5-1 DNP
#10 Villanova (34) 2-2 Lost
#11 Richmond (56) 3-1 Lost
#13 UC-Davis (19) 3-2 DNP
#14 Mo. State (4) 5-4 DNP
#16 Kennesaw State (38) 4-1 DNP
#17 Southeastern Louisiana (43) 4-3 Lost
#18 Southern Illinois (8) 5-3 Won
You can pencil in Delaware and scratch SE Louisiana.
Nick points out that Villanova did not beat anyone with a winning record and should be scratched. He says the same thing about Richmond. Both of them lost this week and neither have a top 25 win.
Let's look at #16 Kennesaw. Throw out the Division 2 win and they are 3-1 with a SoS of 38. Here's another team with zero wins against a team with a winning record. Their loss was a blowout to league champion Monmouth. I agree with Nick...scratch them.
#14 Mo. State. They beat us and shared the league title. Their results are mixed, but let's put them in for now.
#13 UC-Davis. Another team with no wins against teams with a winning record. SoS is 19, but they are 0-2 against top-25 teams. Scratch them.
That leaves E. Washington, N. Dakota, and N. Dakota State above us. For discussion sake, let's slide them all in. E. Washington doesn't have the most impressive resume, but put them in anyway. I've already penciled in Delaware and Mo. State. That is five bids with one remaining.
None of the teams that were scratched and that are ranked ahead of us last week can stand when put side-to-side with the factors that the committee is supposed to look at. The NCAA also claims that they don't look at conference affiliations when determining bids. We all know that doesn't guarantee anything. Our three losses are all against MVFC tri-champions. No one else that we are presumably competing against for that final sport can claim a win against a top-25 team, nor against a team with a winning record. We have a much better SoS than any of them. We have four top-25 wins.
We have a strong argument. Will it be enough.
I still think it is a stretch, but here is some of what Coach Hill is looking at. His thinking makes sense, but when does anything the NCAA does make sense.
Auto-bids: James Madison, Weber State, South Dakota State, Sam Houston, Jacksonville State, Monmouth, VMI, Davidson, Sacred Heart, Holy Cross.
Here are the remaining teams in the top 20 who were ranked above us last week with their strength of schedule, record and result this week:
#2 NDSU (17) 6-2 Lost
#6 N. Dakota (12) 4-1 DNP
#7 Delaware (61) 5-0 Won
#8 E. Washington (27) 5-1 DNP
#10 Villanova (34) 2-2 Lost
#11 Richmond (56) 3-1 Lost
#13 UC-Davis (19) 3-2 DNP
#14 Mo. State (4) 5-4 DNP
#16 Kennesaw State (38) 4-1 DNP
#17 Southeastern Louisiana (43) 4-3 Lost
#18 Southern Illinois (8) 5-3 WonYou can pencil in Delaware and scratch SE Louisiana.
Nick points out that Villanova did not beat anyone with a winning record and should be scratched. He says the same thing about Richmond. Both of them lost this week and neither have a top 25 win.
Let's look at #16 Kennesaw. Throw out the Division 2 win and they are 3-1 with a SoS of 38. Here's another team with zero wins against a team with a winning record. Their loss was a blowout to league champion Monmouth. I agree with Nick...scratch them.
#14 Mo. State. They beat us and shared the league title. Their results are mixed, but let's put them in for now.
#13 UC-Davis. Another team with no wins against teams with a winning record. SoS is 19, but they are 0-2 against top-25 teams. Scratch them.
That leaves E. Washington, N. Dakota, and N. Dakota State above us. For discussion sake, let's slide them all in. E. Washington doesn't have the most impressive resume, but put them in anyway. I've already penciled in Delaware and Mo. State. That is five bids with one remaining.
None of the teams that were scratched and that are ranked ahead of us last week can stand when put side-to-side with the factors that the committee is supposed to look at. The NCAA also claims that they don't look at conference affiliations when determining bids. We all know that doesn't guarantee anything. Our three losses are all against MVFC tri-champions. No one else that we are presumably competing against for that final sport can claim a win against a top-25 team, nor against a team with a winning record. We have a much better SoS than any of them. We have four top-25 wins.
We have a strong argument. Will it be enough.
Thanks so much, 69: terrific work.
I'm still sitting here thinking (perhaps irrationally) "If there's a way SIU can get screwed over, it will happen."
(Inflammatory political snark)
Hero Sports has us out.
https://herosports.com/fcs-football-bracketology-10-playoff-predictions-bzbz/
