College Basketball is a few weeks away. We're getting projections from all over the place and should be getting a KenPom rankings within the next week or two. Here are mine:
1. Drake Bulldogs
Drake returns the Larry Bird Trophy winner in Tucker DeVries as well as Darnell Brodie. They lost great players like Roman Penn, Garrett Sturtz, and DJ Wilkins but had a pretty impressive transfer class including Ethan Roberts (Army), Atin Wright (Cal State Northridge, and Kyron Gibson (UT Arlington). Look for the gritty Conor Enright to have more of an impact this season, I think he's the next Valley pest.
Best Case Scenario:
Drake wins the Valley regular season and Arch Madness and makes noise in the NCAA Tournament as a Sweet 16 threat.
Worst Case Scenario:
Drake takes time to gel with all their new transfers and takes a bit of a step back. I think it's unlikely they don't win the MVC Regular Season but anything can happen in St. Louis.
2. Northern Iowa Panthers
The Panthers had a down season last year, especially by Ben Jacobson standards but that looks to turn this season. Despite finishing 14-18, a bunch of young Panthers players like Tytan Anderson and Michael Duax made great strides and we know how good Bowen Born is. Now they bring in an impressive Freshman class including Wes Rubin, RJ Taylor, and Kyle Pock. They also brought in a familiar face to the Valley in Jacob Hutson from Loyola Chicago.
Best Case Scenario:
The Panthers combine their returning players with their incoming Freshman and challenge Drake for the Valley title. I'm expecting Northern Iowa to take a big step up from last year.
Worst Case Scenario:
Bowen Born goes through more injury problems, the young players aren't ready to make an impact, and the Panthers disappoint once again.
3. Bradley Braves
Bradley broke through and won their last game of the season against Drake at a packed Carver Arena to win the MVC Regular Season for the first time since 1996. Unfortunately, that would be the peak of their season as Drake blew them out in the Arch Madness Finals and sent Bradley off to the NIT. The offseason didn't get any better as the Braves saw Rienk Mast transfer to Nebraska. On paper, Bradley looks much weaker than last year but this prediction is a trust in Brian Wardle to figure out how to get the most out of this group. Duke Deen was a bit of a disappointment last year for me, without Mast he needs to take a big step this year. Malevy Leons is the best defender in the conference but his shot really cost the Braves in St. Louis. This might take some time to get going but as usual, Wardle will have the Braves peaking in March.
Best Case Scenario:
The Braves use their length and size to compete once again in the Valley. Duke Deen and Malevy Leons both take massive steps and Bradley wins their 3rd Arch Madness in the last 5 years.
Worst Case Scenario:
The loss of Rienk Mast is noticeable and Bradley drops to the middle of the pack in the Valley and looks to reload again in the offseason.
4. Missouri State Bears
For the first time in a few years, there's actually some continuity on this Bears team and Dana Ford needed that bad. The Bears did lose Jonathan Mogbo to South Florida but return Donovan Clay, Chance Moore, and Alston Mason. They're probably this year's SIU in terms of returning players and experience although they lack a player the caliber of Marcus Domask.
Best Case Scenario:
The Bears use their continuity and experience and compete in the top of the Valley. Dana Ford shows that the program is headed in the right direction.
Worst Case Scenario:
Another disappointing middle of the pack season for the Bears and they move on from Dana Ford after the season.
5. Indiana State Sycamores
Josh Schertz is doing a great job at changing the culture in Terre Haute. The Sycamores play an exciting style of basketball we really aren't used to seeing in the MVC and they've had success doing it. They do lose Courvoisier McCauley and Cooper Neese which will be big losses but I think the Sycamores put together the best portal class in the conference with Isaiah Swope (Southern Indiana), Ryan Conwell (South Florida), Aaron Gray (Niagara), and Jake Wolfe (Morehead State). Oh and they return Sophomore Robbie Avila who might challenge for First Team All MVC as soon as this year.
Best Case Scenario:
The transfer portal players all jive right away and Indiana State is back to being a top of the conference team. Robbie Avila makes first team All-MVC.
Worst Case Scenario:
The losses of McCauley and Cooper Neese are too much and the Sycamores fall to a middle of the pack Valley team but still with a lot of hope to the future as long as Avila stays there.
6. Belmont Bruins
Another team that runs a style of basketball that we aren't used to in the Valley is Belmont. They lose Ben Sheppard to the Indiana Pacers as well as Drew Friberg but return an impressive group of players that made great strides last year. Cade Tyson was an impressive Freshman and might be the next Belmont player to head to the NBA in the next few years. They also bring in Malik Dia from Vanderbilt.
Best Case Scenario:
Belmont keeps making strides in their 2nd year in the Valley and Casey Alexander continues to show he's one of the better head coaches in the conference.
Worst Case Scenario:
It's a step back for Belmont with the loss of Ben Sheppard and they're a middle of the pack Valley team.
7. Murray State Racers
The Racers had a great start to last year upsetting ranked Texas A&M in their MTE but fell apart in conference play. I think the Racers have maybe the best group of guards in the conference in Rob Perry, Brian Moore Jr., and JaCobi Wood. The thing that's gonna hold this team back possibly is their front court, especially with the loss of D.J. Burns (Youngstown State) who was the heart and soul of last year's team from my eyes.
Best Case Scenario:
The guards on Murray State all shine and they figure out their frontcourt. I think Murray State could be a sneaky good team this year and I might be really low on them at 7.
Worst Case Scenario:
The Racers frontcourt is an issue and Murray State struggles in the Missouri Valley again and they again see some turnover this offseason.
8. Illinois State Redbirds
Year 1 of Ryan Pedon didn't go as he probably wanted. Illinois State had a pretty old team last year but it just never came together for them. Illinois State did bring in an impressive transfer portal class including Myles Foster (Monmouth), Jordan Davis (Wisconsin), Brandon Lieb (Illinois), and Dalton Banks (Southern Illinois). If the returning players like Darius Burford and Kendall Lewis take jumps this year, I think Illinois State could be a bit of a surprise team in Pedon's second year.
Best Case Scenario:
The Redbirds hit on their portal class and they make a jump into the top half of the Valley in Pedon's second season. This would be huge to show that they're building something.
Worst Case Scenario:
Things don't come together again and it's another disappointing season for Pedon and the future continues to look bleak in Normal.
9. Southern Illinois Salukis
SIU finished last year with their best season by wins since Bryan Mullins was a player and they made it to Saturday in St. Louis for the first time since he's been a coach. SIU finished 3rd in the Valley behind Drake and Bradley and the argument could be made that they were a Rienk Mast shot away in Carbondale from winning the MVC Regular Season. Yet, last year felt like an overall disappointment for the team and it carried over into the offseason. Gone is Marcus Domask (Illinois) and Lance Jones (Purdue) and SIU retained just 29% of their scoring from last year. The Salukis were never going to replace Domask in the portal but I felt like they could have done a better job of coming closer. They bring in R.J. McGee (Tulane), Trey Miller (Incarnate Word), and Jarrett Hensley (Cincinnati) as well as Kennard Davis Jr. an impressive Freshman from St. Louis who I hope they don't bench this year. They lack star power to compete for me but have a bunch of depth and frontcourt potential (Clarence Rupert, Troy D’Amico, Scottie Ebube, Cade Hornecker).
Best Case Scenario:
Losing Domask is a giant loss but the case can be made that more ball movement might help an offense that's struggled for 4 years under Mullins. If this is the case, SIU jumps to maybe a top half of the Valley team but I think the lack of a go-to guy limits their ceiling here.
Worst Case Scenario:
The lack of Domask as a go-to scoring option tanks this SIU season and they have their worst season since Barry Hinson was the coach. Given the fact that Mullins hasn't been extended yet, I wouldn't guarantee he's safe this offseason if they can't finish above .500. I don't see SIU dropping below Valpo or Evansville but the possibility is there that this could be a 10th place team if all goes wrong.
10. UIC Flames
UIC had to make a big jump from the Horizon to the Missouri Valley last year and their record showed this. Gone is Jace Carter (Texas A&M) and Trevante Anderson but I think UIC did a pretty good job in the portal grabbing Marquise Kennedy (Loyola Chicago) and Isaiah Rivera (Colorado State). Toby Okani declared for the NBA Draft this offseason but withdrew and I think he's the returning guy that's going to make a big jump this year.
Best Case Scenario:
UIC continues to improve in the Missouri Valley and jumps to a middle of the pack team on the backs of guys like Okani, Kennedy, and Rivera.
Worst Case Scenario:
UIC continues to struggle in the Valley and Head Coach Luke Yaklich becomes a serious hot seat candidate in his 4th year with the program.
11. Evansville Purple Aces:
Last year was another disaster for Evansville in David Ragland's first year with the program. He was really put in a no-win situation with the late firing of Todd Lickliter. Evansville does return Kenny Strawbridge Jr. but it looks to be another rough season for the Aces with a lot of new players.
Best Case Scenario:
Just some improvement with a few more Valley wins would be a success for this team. Anything to show that Evansville is turning their program in the right direction.
Worst Case Scenario:
Another 0 to 2 win Valley season and no progress being made to turn this program around.
12. Valparaiso Crusaders
Gone is Matt Lottich and in is Roger Powell Jr. Outside of re-hiring Bryce Drew, this was a home run hire for Valpo bringing in a coach with a name like Powell Jr. has not only regionally but nationally. This is going to be a tough rebuild for Powell Jr. but felt like he could have used the portal a bit better this offseason. Only 3 scholarship players return from last year and none of their players scored over 4 points per game in D1 last year.
Best Case Scenario:
Valpo wins a few Valley games and competes hard every night. Powell Jr. shows he's a coach that's going to be a pain in the ass in the Valley going forward.
Worst Case Scenario:
A 0 win Valley season which is incredibly possible given this roster.
Awards:
First team:
Tucker DeVries, Drake
Bowen Born, Northern Iowa
Robbie Avila, Indiana State
Donovan Clay, Missouri State
Malevy Leons, Bradley
Second team:
Rob Perry, Murray State
Darnell Brodie, Drake
Cade Tyson, Belmont
Tytan Anderson, Northern Iowa
Isaiah Swope, Indiana State
Individual Awards:
Player of the Year: Tucker DeVries, Drake
Defensive Player: Malevy Leons, Bradley
Newcomer: Isaiah Swope, Indiana State
Coach of the Year: Ben Jacobson, Northern Iowa
Thanks for doing this. I see the Salukis picked 8 or 9 in a couple of rankings from national outlets too.
If that happens, I don’t see any way the new AD has much of a choice on the head coach next March.
Supporter of the Fab 4: Scottie Ebube, Foster Wonders, AJ Ferguson & Cade Hornecker.
They’re the ones that can get us where we haven’t been in 15 years.
Thanks for doing this. I see the Salukis picked 8 or 9 in a couple of rankings from national outlets too.
If that happens, I don’t see any way the new AD has much of a choice on the head coach next March.
I think SIU will end up being picked 8th ahead of ISU Red in the official poll which I think is fair.
I’m still ready to see what SIU has with all the new pieces. I want nothing more than Bryan Mullins to succeed and be the head coach at SIU for the long-run and I hope we come out of this season with the arrow pointing up.
I personally don't think you're giving some of the new guys enough credit. I think we know what we're going to get with XJ, D'Amico (although some overrate him IMO), Brown,etc but there are some exciting unknowns. I think Miller is going to be a really nice get for us, especially since he'll be here longer than a year. The more I hear about AJ's offseason improvement (both in shooting and confidence) the more I think he COULD be a very important piece. I think Stulic can, is going to, be the sharpshooter this team has lacked since Jones Soph season. And then there are the freshmen, of whom I think Davis could really make a difference (if he's ready). Lastly, the biggest unknown is Ebube in my opinion. He could be anywhere from a power back up who struggles to find the correct position on the floor to an ALL VALLEY big. We simply don't see a player with his physical abilitles in the valley often, which is why I think he could very well be the KEY to our season.
I haven't finished my Valley preview yet, but I assure you I will have the Salukis higher than 9 and am fairly confident in that.
Copying over my picks from the MVCfans board:
1. Drake - Counting on Brodie consistently playing like the beast he was in March. Need transfers to click
2. UNI - If they can tighten up their defense, have enough pieces to win league
3. Indiana State - I like the blend of returnees, newcomers and coaching, though Gray's eligibility in question?
4. Missouri State - Would probably pick them higher if not for track record of not maximizing talent
5. Belmont - Might have league's best big three (Tyson, Gillespie, Davidson) but depth is my main question
6. Bradley - Could contend, but pretty reliant on some transfers who (mostly) have not proven themselves
7. SIU - Obvious scoring question marks, but there is a lot of length and athleticism to work with
8. Illinois State - Not sold yet on their PG play or post situations, but definitely on the upswing
9. UIC - Like their transfer guards (if healthy), Okani and I think Jones will be among league's most-improved
10. Murray State - There were some red flags w/this roster last year, and not sure they've added enough
11. Evansville - Feels good to not pick the Purple Aces last ... they need to be much more competitive
12. Valpo - Expect them to play hard for Powell but the roster is very much under construction
I think Cade Tyson could give DeVries a run for his money for Valley POY, with Born also in the mix.
1. UNI
2. Drake
3. Indiana State
4. Belmont
5. Missouri State
6. Murray State
7. Bradley
8. SIU
9. Illinois State
10. UIC
11. Valpo
12. Evansville
Hope I'm wrong about the Dawgs, but we struggled to score with Marcus and Lance. Not sure how we'll score better this year. We should be a good defensive team and possibly a good rebounding team.
Stulic had one good 3-pt shooting year but averaged less than 8ppg that year. The other two years at Little Rock, his shooting was average. In HS, he shot the 3 at a 40% clip, but can he get his shot off in D1?
Unless BM can coach up and effectively use our bigs (and last year he didn't), the scoring is not there IMO.
I expect XJ to be our best scorer. Not a good sign when your point guard is your best scorer.
Mid Major top 25 according to Ken Pom
https://x.com/mid_madness/status/1713759959257698654?s=43&t=sH_9eVZ4SXzpo6VQOq-srA
Mid Major top 25 according to Ken Pom
https://x.com/mid_madness/status/1713759959257698654?s=43&t=sH_9eVZ4SXzpo6VQOq-srA
Ouch! Drake is the only Valley school listed. That has to change.
MVC Preseason Poll has SIU 9th, Xavier Johnson is surprisingly on the 3rd team though:
https://twitter.com/valleyhoops/status/1714265006378991760?s=46&t=7s0hTttieSER8wqRSA0LoA
Thanks for doing this. I see the Salukis picked 8 or 9 in a couple of rankings from national outlets too.
If that happens, I don’t see any way the new AD has much of a choice on the head coach next March.
Firing Mullins after this year would be insane, clearly a retooling year in a valley that returns some strong teams. It is possible to continue building a program while taking a small step back in terms of wins. Lets see how they look and how recruiting plays out.
Thanks for doing this. I see the Salukis picked 8 or 9 in a couple of rankings from national outlets too.
If that happens, I don’t see any way the new AD has much of a choice on the head coach next March.
Firing Mullins after this year would be insane, clearly a retooling year in a valley that returns some strong teams. It is possible to continue building a program while taking a small step back in terms of wins. Lets see how they look and how recruiting plays out.
3rd to 9th is not a small step back. You can reload in one offseason like Indiana State did. SIU put all their eggs in the Domask basket and when he left, they didn’t have a good plan to come close to replacing him.
Let's wait a little while before making that assessment. I think we got some good pieces in the off season and if folks like Ferguson and Ebube develop we could be a very surprising team. We will be one of the best defensive teams in the mvc, let's just hope our offense catches up. We are deeper, longer and more athletic than we have been in the past. Just because we are picked 9th doesn't mean we will finish 9th or anywhere close to that. In the portal era pre-season predictions are pretty much a crap shoot.Thanks for doing this. I see the Salukis picked 8 or 9 in a couple of rankings from national outlets too.
If that happens, I don’t see any way the new AD has much of a choice on the head coach next March.
Firing Mullins after this year would be insane, clearly a retooling year in a valley that returns some strong teams. It is possible to continue building a program while taking a small step back in terms of wins. Lets see how they look and how recruiting plays out.
3rd to 9th is not a small step back. You can reload in one offseason like Indiana State did. SIU put all their eggs in the Domask basket and when he left, they didn’t have a good plan to come close to replacing him.
