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How the NET rating is a complete joke...

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goroshnik
(@goroshnik)
Mike Reis Press Box Poster
Joined: 7 years ago
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Hey all... another year, and yep, another rant from your old pal Goro.  I know I don't pop up on here as much as I used to like in previous SIU message boards, but I had to crunch some numbers to show you just how horrible the new NET system was in unfairly boosting teams from the power conferences while damaging nearly everyone else.  It's a bit of a long post, but I hope you read it all the way through.

This year, if you compared each team's NET vs. their RPI, a total of 43 out of the 76 teams in the Big 6 (Big 12, Big 10, ACC, SEC, Big East and Pac-12) saw at least a 20 point gain in ranking from their RPI to the NET numbers.  Nearly 57 percent of the bigs saw a 20+ point rise.

As for how many of those bigs actually saw a 20 point or more drop in the NET from their RPI? Only three - Clemson(-20), Oklahoma State (-21) and Missouri (-22).
You want to know how many teams outside of the bigs saw a drop worse than Missouri's? EIGHTY FIVE TEAMS.

That's right... 85 other teams saw drops from their RPI to their NET ratings worse than any team from the Big 6:

-23 Wofford, Kent State, The Citadel, Rider, Lamar
-24 Ohio, UTA, NC A&T
-25 Texas State, Elon, Tarleton State, Alabama A&M
-26 Pacific, Portland, San Jose St.
-27 UCSB, Norfolk St.
-28 Army, Mt. St. Mary’s, Lipscomb
-29 Cincinnati, Montana, North Alabama
-30 Loyola-Marymount, UC Irvine, Central Arkansas
-31 Coastal Carolina, Radford
-32 Western Kentucky, Iona, Santa Clara, Rice
-33 St. Mary’s College, Wagner, Nicholls, San Diego
-34 South Florida, Troy
-35 Niagara
-36 Belmont, Bryant, UC Davis
-37 UNCW
-38 UNCG
-39 Fairfield
-40 Louisiana Tech
-41 Northern Kentucky, GA Southern
-42 Southern Utah, Campbell
-44 Chattanooga, IUPUI, SIUE
-45 Northeastern
-46 Wichita State
-48 Jacksonville State
-49 Northwestern St.
-51 Alcorn St.
-52 Tenn-Martin
-53 Eastern Kentucky, Jackson State
-56 Sam Houston St.
-57 Prairie View A&M, Milwaukee
-58 Grambling State
-61 Navy, Coppin State
-62 Howard
-67 Appalachian State, Marist
-68 Northern Arizona
-72 Siena
-73 Louisiana, South Alabama
-74 Old Dominion, William & Mary
-77 American
-81 Morehead State
-85 Monmouth, Oakland
-86 Georgia State, Sacred Heart
-89 Texas Southern
-98 Canisius
-107 Cleveland State

In case you're wondering how many teams outside the Big 6 got big gains? Here's every team that saw a NET number at least 50 points higher than their RPI. The Big 6 makes up just under 22 percent of the entirety of D-1, yet make up a staggering 71 percent of this list (22 out of 31 teams):

+117 Vanderbilt
+107 Northwestern
+96 Boston College
+95 DePaul
+87 Rhode Island
+85 Pittsburgh
+79 Wake Forest
+77 Nebraska
+76 California
+72 Penn State
+70 UMass
+69 Lafayette
+68 Kentucky
+66 East Carolina
+63 Indiana, Minnesota
+62 Davidson
+61 Duke
+60 Utah, Texas A&M, Temple
+59 Vermont
+58 Notre Dame, Miami-FL
+54 NC State
+52 Mississippi State, San Francisco
+51 Washington State, Washington, UMKC
+50 Wisconsin

This NET rating is simply an absolute joke that inflates the Big 6 conference teams top to bottom unlike no other rating system has done before. And this isn't some one-year fluke either, as in each of the past three seasons, these NET vs. RPI comparisons have proved nearly exactly the same boosts to the bigs each and every time.

The NET has become a self-fulfilling prophecy in that if you can boost your bottom teams with ridiculous numbers (just look at how staggering the bump is from the RPI to the NET for each of the bottom teams in the Big 6), every team in the Big 6 gets their own inflated boost when beating the bottom teams, and the cycle repeats all season long, to the point where the more that the Big 6 teams play each other, the more massive this divide gets between their NET numbers and everyone else.
Sorry I had to make this such a lengthy post, but the truth's in the numbers here. When Iowa State can go 2-22 and STILL rank higher than 115 other teams in the NET, that's just pathetic. Nebraska went 6-20, and their NET is higher than 221 other teams!

The NET's just plain rigged to ensure that the bigs get bigger and better NET ratings just by playing conference games, no matter how good or bad those teams in conference are.

   
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Barkeep 1967
(@barkeep-1967)
Saluki Platnum Member Admin
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 3463
 

Good read as always my friend 


   
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Dawgbytes
(@dawgbytes)
McAndrew Stadium Poster
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 1239
 

Just follow the money my children, follow the money.

The advancement and diffusion of knowledge is the only guardian of true liberty.
James Madison


   
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PackerDawg
(@packerdawg)
Mike Reis Press Box Poster
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 434
 

Not to mention, Loyola has a NET ranking of TEN (!!) but ends up as a 8-seed? They claim the NET is supposed to be the basis for seeding but ignore it when it’s convenient. 


   
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Kyle_Saluki_17
(@kyle_saluki_17)
Itchy Jones Stadium Poster
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 1045
 
Posted by: @packerdawg

Not to mention, Loyola has a NET ranking of TEN (!!) but ends up as a 8-seed? They claim the NET is supposed to be the basis for seeding but ignore it when it’s convenient. 

Exactly right.  The NET is a perfect way to seed teams...unless a mid major holds a good number...


   
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Mdogs1
(@mdogs1)
Itchy Jones Stadium Poster
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 762
 

 

I think the Valley has made huge strides. Just in the fact that the Valley got an at large bid. Especially considering the fact that the last NCAA tournament the Valley got one team in a 15th seeded Bradley this year is definitely an improvement.  Loyola does have a great NET but their best two non-conference games one on a neutral site against Richmond and the other at Wisconsin both resulted in losses. Drake’s non-conference schedule was one of the worst in the country. Their only notable win was over a very poor Kansas State team. What helped both of them the most was the fact that they separated themselves from the rest of the league. Moving forward the Conference really needs to force all schools to schedule better. People will argue that is easier said than done . Key is not playing lower level schools to pad your record but bring down your SOS. I believe that Mike Reis had an interview with Matt Painter a few years back about how SIU scheduled during their run of 5 at large bids during their great run of 6 consecutive NCAA bids. Play in a strong MTE and try not schedule anyone non-conference that had rpi lower that 150. In the new era of the NET things may have changed somewhat but the fact is the big boys are always going to control the purse strings. Also remember the coaches scheduling the games are also trying to keep their jobs. It’s harder for an administrator to fire a coach that consistently finishes at or just above .500 . If you schedule too hard you are much more likely to get fired . Back when the Valley was consistently getting multiple bids the Valley really pushed the AD’s and School presidents to schedule better. Scheduling at our level is an extremely tough job, but working hard at it pays off in the long run . The Mids that get the at large bids schedule well and usually pulls off a quality win  or two during the non-conference part of their schedule.  The margin of error is usually smaller for the Mids but not impossible. You just got to work the system and be good . 


   
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carrcar
(@carrcar)
Mike Reis Press Box Poster
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 418
 

Why is the NCAA so afraid of a completely open tournament? Use season records for rankings, and used rankings for seeding. Regional teams would be really placed in their region with seeded teams getting homecourt advantage. Conference championships used to be the goal, then they figured they could make even more money by having a conference tourney. It wasn't until the late 70's that most conferences had season ending tournaments. Before that the season champ got the automatic bid.

“The best thing about freshmen is that they become sophomores.”
-- Al McGuire


   
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PackerDawg
(@packerdawg)
Mike Reis Press Box Poster
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 434
 

I would be opposed to making it open.  I think it’s large enough already.  You should have to earn a spot in the tournament and if you’re not one of the 68 best teams in the country why should you get to play in the postseason? 


   
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Dawgbytes
(@dawgbytes)
McAndrew Stadium Poster
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 1239
 
Posted by: @packerdawg

I would be opposed to making it open.  I think it’s large enough already.  You should have to earn a spot in the tournament and if you’re not one of the 68 best teams in the country why should you get to play in the postseason? 

Because “best” is determined by the selection committee. The 2018 Ramblers would not have danced to the FF had they not won Arch Madness. 

The advancement and diffusion of knowledge is the only guardian of true liberty.
James Madison


   
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