SIU continues Valley play against a Missouri State team coming off a big road win at Drake.
Missouri State has quality wins over #96 Drake twice, #118 Indiana State, and #132 Middle Tennessee.
Meet the Bears:
This season, Missouri State is playing at a much slower pace than normal, the Bears are 352nd in the country in adjusted tempo (63.1). Missouri State is averaging 18.9 seconds per possession on offense, which is 322nd in the country and they're averaging 18.5 seconds per possession on the defensive end, which is 353rd in the country.
The Bears had a huge roster turnover from last year losing Gaige Prim and Isiaih Mosley among others and they're 328th in the country in minutes continuity from last year (17.6%). With all the talent Missouri State has brought in, the Bears are 9th in the country in % of minutes coming from their bench (42.1%).
What the Bears do well:
The Bears have won this year with their defense. Missouri State is 107th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (100.6). The Bears do their work causing turnovers and blocking shots as they're 98th in the country in turnover % (20.0%), 38th in the country in block % (12.5%), and 73rd in the country in steal % (10.9%).
Missouri State rebounds well on both the offensive and defensive ends. They're 97th in the country in offensive rebounding % (31.5%) and 112th in the country in offensive rebounding % against (26.9%).
The Bears are a middle of the pack 3 point shooting team (33.6%, 180th in the country) but they're 31st in the country in 3 point attempts per field goal attempts (44.4%) and 37.8% of their total points come from 3 (27th in the country).
What the Bears don't do well:
Missouri State has really struggled at taking care of the ball on the offensive end. The Bears are 246th in the country in turnover % on the offensive end (19.6%). If you get late into a game with the Bears and it becomes a free throw shooting contest, that would be great news for SIU and their 2nd in the country free throw defense. The Bears shoot 61.6% from the free throw line which is 354th int the country.
Players to Watch:
The most recognizable player on Missouri State for Valley fans is 6'8 Senior Donovan Clay. Clay spent two seasons at Valparaiso before transferring across the Valley to Missouri State. Clay is 2nd on the Bears in scoring averaging 10.3 points per game and leads the Bears in assists with 3.6 assists per game. Clay is 150th in the country in assist rate (26.6%), 286th in the country in block % (3.6%), and 468th in the country in free throw rate (35.3%). Clay is also one of the best defenders in the Valley having been named to the MVC All-Defensive team last season.
Missouri State's leading scorer is 6'6 Sophomore Chance Moore averaging 11.9 points per game. Moore was a 4 star recruit out of Powder Springs, GA and committed to Arkansas over offers from Alabama, LSU, Auburn, and Clemson. Moore played sparingly in his only season at Arkansas playing just 5 games and transferred to Missouri State this offseason. Moore is currently Missouri State's leader in shots and possessions. He's 220th in the country in % of possessions when he's on the floor (26.4%) and 164th in the country in % of shots taken when on the floor (28.3%). Moore is 494th in the country in 2 point % (37-67, 55.2%), 498th in the country in defensive rebounding % (17.0%), and 498th in the country in block % (2.6%).
The Bears' leader in rebounds, steals, and blocks is 6'8 Junior Jonathan Mogbo averaging 6 rebounds per game, 1.8 steals per game, 1.2 blocks per game. Mogbo spent his Freshman season at Independence CC and his Sophomore season at Northeastern Oklahoma A&M before transferring to Missouri State this offseason. Mogbo was named the 31st best JUCO transfer by JUCORecruiting. This season, Mogbo is 171st in the country in offensive rebounding % (10.9%) and 104th in the country in defensive rebounding % (23.1%). Mogbo is also 12th in the country in steal % (5.2%) and 98th in the country in block % (6.1%).
Another player of note for Missouri State include 6'7 Senior Dalen Ridgnal. Ridgnal started at Cowley College before spending one year at Georgia where he played in 28 games. Ridgnal is the Bears big 3 point threat as he's 272nd in the country in 3 point % (24-60, 40.0%).
Links:
SIU Game Notes
Missouri State Game Notes
I am encouraged by both the emergence of Ebube, who should continue to get better, and the vast improvement of Muila’s offense. Especially Ebube, he is rivaled only by Brodie, in terms of size and bulk in the paint. Go Dawgs
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If SIU shoots better than 37% from 3, they will likely win this game. They have not needed to hit a high percentage from 3 in several of their wins, but based on Missouri St's strengths, I think that very well may be a key to victory. If the guys can suddenly find their stroke from the outside, I really like our chances.
I'll be pleasantly surprised with a win. I don't think Missouri State is amazing but Ford seems to have our number the last few years and SIU has always struggled in Springfield. Feels like the past few games there have been blowouts from the start.
Wasn't expecting there to be much of a crowd but Missouri State board seems to expect a good crowd.
I'll be pleasantly surprised with a win. I don't think Missouri State is amazing but Ford seems to have our number the last few years and SIU has always struggled in Springfield. Feels like the past few games there have been blowouts from the start.
Wasn't expecting there to be much of a crowd but Missouri State board seems to expect a good crowd.
I expect a close game too and wouldn't, of course, be shocked at a loss either when you consider how close we've played nearly every game and well.... this is the Valley. That being said, I still don't like the "we've always struggled here or there" reasoning, because we have struggled everwhere the last decade plus. Time to change that narrative.
Road Record since 2000
We are 7-16 all time at Missouri State.
4-19 at Northern Iowa
14-10 @drake
14-11 ISUb
14-9 Evansville
8-14 ISUr
10-14 Bradley
6-8 Chreighton
8-10 Wichita State
It seems like UNI and Mo St stand out.
I through Chreighton and WSU in there to show our record against historically top MVC schools.
Looking forward to this one. I think it should be pretty salty - physical, competitive, both defenses setting the tone. Southern is a little more athletic this year with Johnson and Jones both out there together plus some of the guys in the frontcourt, so hoping that athleticism gap against Missouri State isn't as pronounced as it has been in some past years.
This one will probably come down to the "boring" stuff like the turnover and rebounding battles ... but yes, it would be helpful if Southern could shoot over 30 percent from 3 for a change.
As SalukiWorld has pointed out previously, long and athletic teams make executing extremely difficult for us. If Coach Ford applies full court or 3/4 pressure I am hoping we are most prepared. The most efficient manner of breaking pressure is by passing the ball, not dribbling. I really dislike the lob pass, which we utilize often. Good, strong passes, as well as intelligent decisions will be needed tomorrow. The excitement mounts.
GO DAWGS!!!
Don't love this match up on, add in that it is on the road and I would not pick SIU... A win here would be a bonus in my mind though. The formula to win the conference is simple. Win the home games, beat UIC, Valpo and ILL ST on the road... May need to steal one more but even what I just said gives us a great chance.
If I were Mo State, I would be in that 3-2 zone they used against Drake to get back in the game, the entire time. They put Clay at the top which basically allows them to split the court in two...there lineup is so long skip passes get picked off often and you are basically forced to knock down outside shots (obviously not our strong suit as of late). Most of our guards are on the shorter side, so makes those passes that much more difficult.
Just don't have a good feeling going in to this game...hopefully we are able to figure things out and knock down some outside shots or it could be a long day.
Assuming Bradley takes care of business at home against Belmont, an SIU win in Springfield leaves Southern alone in first place after 10 games - for the first time since what, 2007?
This is a HUGE game. SIU has a chance to be in the driver's seat for the league championship.
@usmcsaluki on the other hand…a SIU loss, Bradley win, UNI win (likely), ISUblue win (possible) you end up coming out of this weekend with 6 teams tied for first with a few right behind in 2nd place.
But I like your idea of stealing one on the road but I’m not optimistic.
Assuming Bradley takes care of business at home against Belmont, an SIU win in Springfield leaves Southern alone in first place after 10 games - for the first time since what, 2007?
This is a HUGE game. SIU has a chance to be in the driver's seat for the league championship.
Honestly with the remaining schedules, and SIU having the tiebreaker over Belmont, long term we probably have a better chance to win the conference with a Belmont win. Just my personal guess.
