Looks like the Valley is going to be a one-bid league.
I guess it's still possible that someone could go 18-0 in the conference season or still get a couple of upset wins in a thanksgiving tournament but I don't see it happening. The teams are too close together. No one really great but no one really awful.
Loyola has lost at home to Furman (KenPom 132) on a dunk with less than 2 seconds left. ISUred lost by double-digits and gave up a hundred at Belmont (KenPom 92).
Southern's lackluster (down 16 late in the second half) effort vs. Buffalo put SIU behind the eight-ball. Now, Southern will probably need to win at Buffalo, win at SLU and win the tournament in Vegas to get back where it could be on the national radar. Plus, they can't lose to bottom feeders like Pine Bluff, Howard, SIUE and SEMO.
Loyola has name recognition and that is a huge plus.
SIU has to win out in OOC including top 10 Nevada to even sniff an st large Not gonna happen
I still think the MVC has the chance to be pretty solid this year, but yes, a horrible start for the league in that each of the projected top-three teams have blown games they probably needed to win to be taken seriously as at-large candidates. Very, very little margin for error from this point forward.
If SIU manages to win the Valley with a nice looking record, then they don't have to beat both Buffalo and Nevada to have a shot. In that scenario, they would need to win one of those two games, and take care of business during the rest of the OOC schedule.
Two huge missed opportunities though. That really hurts.
--Insert something witty here--
In your scenario then, SIU has one good win on its entire schedule as if we win with a good record that makes it unlikely that ISU or Loyola is considered a good win. We arent getting in with 1-3 quality wins all year long, we just arent and nor should we.
We realistically need to win out OOC and go 16-2 with 2 close losses in MVC, hope that Il State and Loyola also do well to boost quality wins, and then get to the finals of the tournament to even have an at large shot at this point.
This is one reason I would've liked to see a more balanced non-conference schedule, especially one not so top heavy.
But Barry said that mid majors can not get an at large bid? I’m so confused
In your scenario then, SIU has one good win on its entire schedule as if we win with a good record that makes it unlikely that ISU or Loyola is considered a good win. We arent getting in with 1-3 quality wins all year long, we just arent and nor should we.
We realistically need to win out OOC and go 16-2 with 2 close losses in MVC, hope that Il State and Loyola also do well to boost quality wins, and then get to the finals of the tournament to even have an at large shot at this point.
I should've clarified; my scenario operates under the impression that at least one of Loyola or ISU can be considered quality wins and the MVC finishing as a top 10 league. Not likely, but not impossible.
Honestly, after more than a decade of mediocrity and an 0-2 start, I'm not even considering an NCAA at-large as a possibility. I just took "SIU" out and replaced with "insert team here" and wondered if that potential resume would be good enough to garner consideration for an at-large.
--Insert something witty here--
But Barry said that mid majors can not get an at large bid? I’m so confused
In the past 10 years 23 mid majors received at large bids. Wichita St. 4, Gonzaga 3, Butler 3. That’s not many, just saying. https://blog.qlik.com/tourney-time-analyzing-a-decade-of-mid-majors
It could of been worse for ISU. They almost choked against Chicago State at home last night.
But this was to be expected...
Twitter: CPTNDONUTS
Former WIDB Sports Director and Dawg Pound President. Since my freshmen year, SIU Basketball has not appeared in a NCAA or NIT postseason game.
There is only one way SIU makes it to the NCAA and that's by winning the conference tournament, which is definitely a possibility IMO.
Still think Loyola is the class of the league, but the league should be more competitive this year. Redturds have not impressed, losing to Chi. State with 4 minutes to go but coming back for the win, getting whipped at Belmont (picked to win the OVC this year), and having a tough home game with FGCU. Still think SIU, Loyola, and Redturds are the top 3.
Wish we had a couple of really good outside shooters - I think we'd be the best team in the MVC.
There is only one way SIU makes it to the NCAA and that's by winning the conference tournament, which is definitely a possibility IMO.
Still think Loyola is the class of the league, but the league should be more competitive this year. Redturds have not impressed, losing to Chi. State with 4 minutes to go but coming back for the win, getting whipped at Belmont (picked to win the OVC this year), and having a tough home game with FGCU. Still think SIU, Loyola, and Redturds are the top 3.
Wish we had a couple of really good outside shooters - I think we'd be the best team in the MVC.
Yeah, that's the most realistic way to get in; we could still be in at large territory though if we run through the non con and win the conference title. That would net solid wins against Nevada, SLU, and at Buffalo, but likely - sadly no.
And.....
ISUblue is up 1 at home to McKendree. With 13 minutes to go in the game.
ISUblue wins by 17
Still way, WAY too early to figure out if the Valley's a one-bid league or not. Gotta at least get thru the end of non-con season before we get any kind of decent picture for any Valley team's chances.
I, for one, would like to at least get the chance to check out the NCAA's new NET ranking tool and how it compares to the old RPI. Right now I can't even find any NET simulation online anywhere, so I've got no idea on its usefulness.
