I had plans on writing a big fancy preview. Wanted to look like a real fancy website. Sadly I am really lazy and not much of a writer. After talking to 69 this is what we got.
1. UNI
8/9 Valpo and ILSU
10. Evansville ( they won’t be there long)
POY: Green
ROY: absolutely no clue
newcomer of the year : Ben Harvey
we did agree Loyola is probably the best team but are greatly handicapped by their Coach.
SIU could finish anywhere from 2–6 but this team is coming. Could be favorites next year
UNI
Loyola
SIU
Bradley
Indst.
Missouri State
Drake
Valpo
ISU
Evansville
Green POY, Banks FOY, Harvey NOY, Mulia all defensive team, Domask 1st team, Jones 2nd team, Harvey 3rd team
Those are my predictions while wearing my maroon colored readers....
1. Loyola
2. UNI
3. SIU
4. Indiana State
5. Bradley
6. Missouri State
7. Drake
8. ISU
9. Valpo
10. Evansville
Realistically, SIU is probably more likely to be 5th than 3rd, but since I'm an SIU fan and on SIU's forum, top 3 is a given. Look for UNI and Loyola to be on the bubble watch this year.
Best Case Scenario: SIU pulls an upset victory in Arch Madness. UNI and Loyola both get At-Large Bids.
Worst Case Scenario: Evansville pulls a miracle in Arch Madness and pulls a 16 seed for the NCAA Tournament. They lose by 60 in the first round.
1. Northern Iowa
Lost a big piece in Isaiah Brown but A.J. Green should be the best player in the conference again and Phyfe and Berhow were 2 of the best offensive players in the country last year. There's a little bit of inexperience outside of those 3 players but I think last year's St. Louis loss to Drake will motivate them.
2. Loyola
Bringing back the most talent from last year in the conference, losing nobody. Cameron Krutwig is one of the best all-around players in the country, Tate Hall was 62nd in the country in 3 point % last year. What's preventing me from buying all the way in on them is I don't think Moser is a good coach. The Final Four is a huge outlier on his 16 year resume.
3. Indiana State
The loss of Jordan Barnes hurts but Tyreke Key should continue to improve into the 3rd or 4th best player in the conference. Jake LaRavia really impressed last year as a Freshman both shooting and rebounding, he was 43rd in the country last year in offensive rebounding %.
4. Bradley
The Braves lost 3 key pieces from last year in Darrell Brown, Nate Kennell, and Koch Bar and I think it's going to take time for them to gel. I do think there's some under the radar pieces on this team like Ville Tahvanainen and Ari Boya that didn't get many minutes last year but did a lot with the little minutes they got, now they'll get a much bigger workload with the loss of the 3 players mentioned above. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they finished lower than myself and others are picking them to finish but you know they'll be ready in St. Louis when March comes.
5. Southern Illinois
Second straight year of big turnover but they have a young core in tact in Marcus Domask, Lance Jones, and Ben Harvey. The number of new pieces makes this team hard to predict. Jakolby Long is a former 4 star recruit from Iowa State that didn't get much run on an average Southern Utah team last year. They have 3 transfers coming in, 1 of which is J.D. Muila from JUCO and 2 of which are coming from Division 2 in Anthony D'Avanzo and Steven Verplancken. It's impossible to know how all 3 will translate to Division 1. The good news is, Bryan Mullins was able to turn a team that had no business finishing in the top half of the league last year into a team that had a chance of knocking off Bradley and winning the Tournament in March last season.
6. Drake
Two years ago, Drake surprised everyone when they took a share of the regular season championship in Darian DeVries' first year as coach. Last year, Drake had high expectations and took a step back before pulling the upset in St. Louis over Northern Iowa. I'm guessing they'll be somewhere in the middle this year. Losing Liam Robbins is a huge loss but Roman Penn was 10th in the nation in assist rate last year and is one of the best guards in the conference. They have other interesting pieces like Tremell Murphy who went through a suspension and injury last year and Tank Hemphill who had a major role at Green Bay a few years ago. I just worry about their interior defense with the loss of Robbins, they're really limited in terms of size.
7. Missouri State
What a disappointment the Bears were last year after being picked to win the conference in preseason. The Bears put together a bunch of talented pieces that just didn't fit with one another. Missouri State will look very different again this year losing a lot of those pieces and hopefully bringing in pieces that fit. Gaige Prim was one of the pieces that did work and he might be the 2nd best big man in the conference behind Krutwig. It's tough to predict much from the Bears though as they only bring back 5 players that had minutes for them last year. They have a very interesting 7 footer, Hawaii transfer Dawson Carper but they don't expect him to play this year.
8. Valparaiso
The Crusaders had an amazing run in March at Arch Madness after an average season and look poised to start to build momentum in the conference but lost their best player, Javon Freeman-Liberty, to transfer and that's a guy that's impossible to replace. I do really like Donovan Clay who was really impressive in the two games against SIU last year as a Freshman. They do have 3 Seniors in their projected starting lineup but they're really going to have to grind out wins without Freeman-Liberty.
9. Illinois State
The Redbirds have fallen hard the last few years. From being right there with Wichita State in their glory days with Paris Lee to being on the opposite end of the spectrum in 2020. Antonio Reeves was impressive at times as a Freshman and I think he can continue to improve. I think DJ Horne will continue to develop into their go-to option and Keith Fisher is a pretty good Senior that can rebound. My guess is, this will be Muller's last year in Normal, the fanbase is growing restless and things seem to be getting worse, not better.
10. Evansville
From beating Kentucky in November to going 0-19 in the Missouri Valley by March. The Purple Aces season changed when Walter McCarty was put on administrative leave and Todd Lickliter took over in December. Evansville is probably going to have short-term pain but I think Lickliter will turn them around and make them respectable soon. For right now, this is a team that lost their best player in DeAndre Williams to transfer and their 2nd best player in K.J. Riley to graduation. I do think they have a few interesting pieces for 2020 in Sam Cunliffe, Evan Kuhlman, and Noah Frederking that gave SIU all kinds of fits last year. I don't expect Evansville to be 0-19 bad this year with an entire offseason learning Lickliter's system but I can't see them surprising like SIU did last year after last place projections.
“What's preventing me from buying all the way in on them is I don't think Moser is a good coach. The Final Four is a huge outlier on his 16 year resume.”
without that one year he is BBQ
1. Loyola
2. UNI
3. Bradley
4. Indiana State
5. SIU
6. Drake
7. Missouri St.
8. Valpo
9. Illinois State
10. Evansville
A few thoughts:
- Loyola has crazy depth. A legit 8-9 guys who are MVC-caliber starters, and obviously Krutwig as a senior is a helluva anchor. If they click, I could see them having a special season.
- UNI has a great core with Green, Phyfe and Berhow ... I get why they were picked to win it, but they're going to need some underclassmen to step up.
- People might be sleeping on Bradley some. They have some guys to replace, but I think their roster is overall deeper and probably more talented with a nice mix of newcomers (including three DI transfers) and returnees around Childs.
- The Salukis certainly could do better than 5th and I was tempted to slot Southern ahead of the Trees, especially considering coaching intangibles. Indiana State just has those two talented young bigs, and paired with Key and a few other veterans, on paper they probably merit the nod.
- Overall, this is going to be a wild season (assuming we actually have one!!) There will be bumps, likely some major ones, and not having the usual homecourt advantage will hurt certain teams more than others (probably including SIU, which is on the verge of bringing that major homecourt edge back). The teams with the most maturity and resilience will have an advantage in coping with all the oddities, and obviously health is a huge X-factor, too. Hate to see cases rising just as we head toward November, but crossing my fingers that this somehow goes more smoothly than I fear.
1. Loyola
2. UNI
3. Bradley
4. Indiana State
5. SIU
6. Drake
7. Missouri St.
8. Valpo
9. Illinois State
10. Evansville
A few thoughts:
- Loyola has crazy depth. A legit 8-9 guys who are MVC-caliber starters, and obviously Krutwig as a senior is a helluva anchor. If they click, I could see them having a special season.
- UNI has a great core with Green, Phyfe and Berhow ... I get why they were picked to win it, but they're going to need some underclassmen to step up.
- People might be sleeping on Bradley some. They have some guys to replace, but I think their roster is overall deeper and probably more talented with a nice mix of newcomers (including three DI transfers) and returnees around Childs.
- The Salukis certainly could do better than 5th and I was tempted to slot Southern ahead of the Trees, especially considering coaching intangibles. Indiana State just has those two talented young bigs, and paired with Key and a few other veterans, on paper they probably merit the nod.
- Overall, this is going to be a wild season (assuming we actually have one!!) There will be bumps, likely some major ones, and not having the usual homecourt advantage will hurt certain teams more than others (probably including SIU, which is on the verge of bringing that major homecourt edge back). The teams with the most maturity and resilience will have an advantage in coping with all the oddities, and obviously health is a huge X-factor, too. Hate to see cases rising just as we head toward November, but crossing my fingers that this somehow goes more smoothly than I fear.
Another solid analysis. Thanks--saved me the trouble!
(Inflammatory political snark)
One point I would like to add about this seasons Dawgs. Last year Bryan had 4 players stay from the previous coaching staff. Those players were Eric McGill, Aaron Cook, Brendon Gooch, and Sekou Dembele. Eric McGill (1023 minutes) was the only player of that group that played more than 200 minutes all season. This season Bryan has 5 players returning that contributed 2,687 minutes to last years games, plus Ben Harvey that practiced full time with the team last year. Those contributing players were Marcus Domask, (1,116 minutes), Lance Jones, (824 minutes) Trent Brown, (659 minutes), Sekou Dembele, (79 minutes) Will Keller, (9 minutes). That is just under 42% of last seasons total game playing time in Bryan's system returning plus Harvey.
I do expect the Dawgs to finish higher than 5th place!
1. THE Southern Illinois University Salukis
Domask, Jones, Harvey 1st team all-conference, D'Avanzo 2nd team, Mulia 3rd team, Dawgs beat
Illinois by 29 to get to the Final Four causing some of my relatives to stay drunk for a week, then
loses in triple OT on a terrible call to eventual National Champion East Tennessee State.
2. The Pope's favorites
Big Cam Krutwig is POY, Ramblers get to the Sweet 16
3. UNI
wins the NIT
4. Bradley
5. Mo State
6. Drake
7. ISU
8. Valpo
9. Evansville
10. Redturd St.:
nobody on any all-conference team, Muller gets fired mid-season and takes a job coaching the cheerleaders at Illinois Wesleyan
You guys all Rock. Thanks for the write ups.
mr_Woogers : I like it and the Turd prediction is very possible lol
Lots of really good stuff here! Under normal circumstances, I'd like SIU's chances to finish 3rd this year (ahead of Bradley and Indiana State), but without a true home court advantage, as siudawgs points out, that will likely hurt the teams trying to figure out how to fit larger numbers of new pieces into a consistent rotation more than the others. That's why I like Loyola to win it. SIU does have a solid core returning, but they're still very young. Unless things click unbelievably well, and fast, the Dawgs are likely still a year away from serious contention.
One interesting note on Loyola; with the universal eligibility waiver given to winter sports athletes, the Ramblers could do something very special, not only this season, but next year too.
--Insert something witty here--
Bradley is going to be big - they have some good size - but they lost Brown,
Kennell, and Crotch. Big losses. I'll be surprised if they finish as high as 3rd, although they may be a threat to win the MVC tourney by year's end.
Lots of really good stuff here! Under normal circumstances, I'd like SIU's chances to finish 3rd this year (ahead of Bradley and Indiana State), but without a true home court advantage, as siudawgs points out, that will likely hurt the teams trying to figure out how to fit larger numbers of new pieces into a consistent rotation more than the others. That's why I like Loyola to win it. SIU does have a solid core returning, but they're still very young. Unless things click unbelievably well, and fast, the Dawgs are likely still a year away from serious contention.
One interesting note on Loyola; with the universal eligibility waiver given to winter sports athletes, the Ramblers could do something very special, not only this season, but next year too.
Moser is still the coach. Tough problem to overcome
